Clayton Kershaw Has Curves

I tell you, that curve is a thing of beauty. When a 19-year-old A-ball prospect — a highly-touted one, yes, but still — can buckle the knees of a decent major league hitter with his stuff, it’s pretty special. The kid needs to make the majors one day so I can watch curveballs like that all the time.

Kershaw’s performance in Florida has brought out the Promote Him to Los Angeles crazies. I mean, yes, our fifth starter currently appears to be Esteban Loaiza. That’s a little disconcerting. But it doesn’t mean the Dodgers can’t do well, and it certainly doesn’t mean there’s any reason to rush Kershaw to the majors before he’s ready.

According to The Baseball Cube, Kershaw’s career minor league stats are like this:

10-7, 159 IP, 117 H, 217 K, 72 BB, 17 WP, 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Divide those up by levels for better analysis.

GCL Dodgers (Rookie): 2-0, 37 IP, 28 H, 54 K, 5 BB, 8 WP, 1.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
Great Lakes Loons (A): 7-5, 97.1 IP, 72 H, 134 K, 50 BB, 8 WP, 2.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Jacksonville Suns (AA): 1-2, 24.2 IP, 17 H, 29 K, 17 BB, 1 WP, 3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

I put wild pitches in there because I think, combined with his walk rate, it’s indicative of how he needs to develop better control — even when he’s not walking people, he’s still a little unrefined in the control department. At Great Lakes, he had a walk rate of over 4 1/2 walks per nine innings, and when he got to Jacksonville, it jumped to over six walks per nine innings. That’s a lot of walks. To his credit, his hit rates are all under 7 per nine and his strikeout rates are all over 10 per nine, but this is all minor league stuff. I’m no expert, but I don’t think that, in the majors, his walks would go down and he’d maintain the hit and K rates. Call me crazy.

If we see him in September, I’m okay with that, but I’d hate for him to be rushed to the majors just because someone had a panic attack about how our fifth starter isn’t very good. That’s why he’s a fifth starter. That’s no cause for alarm given what we have in the rest of the rotation. If we had held on to Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson and planned to use them as starters, then yeah, I’d worry, but that’s not the case. The Dodgers need to be careful with this kid and not trade him anywhere and then bring him up when he can’t possibly abuse minor league hitting any further. Rushing him could be costly. Maybe it won’t be, but is that a chance you want to take?

The kid has a serious heater and a nasty curve, and I can’t wait to see him make the big club. Now is just not the time.